If Work-from-home (WFH) arrangement persists, I think we could expect to see a big change in the migration pattern of the future. First of all, I would naively divide work into two broad groups. The first group comprises essential work that requires the presence of essential workers. These people won’t be able to work from home, for example, those who are involved in logistics, fast food, research that involves special laboratory equipment, etc. The second group are usually office workers who can opt for WFH arrangements. Think web designers, content creators, software development, finance, etc. These are the ones

Ever since the pandemic has started, the second group has been working from home and this arrangement has already been going on for about a year now. Some don’t even need to step out of the house at all because of the availability of food and grocery delivery services. I am not surprised that growing number of companies are starting to realise that they are able to maintain some operations even when their office workers are working away from office. Actually, these office workers don’t even need to work and reside in the home countries of their companies. Usually this type of work could continue as long as the companies are able to maintain the internet connection to their office workers and vice versa.

This brings us closer to the following questions. First, do companies need to pay for expensive offices in premium locations in order to attract office workers? Do companies even need to have an office? If not, they could channel their funds elsewhere but that might depress the commercial property market, resulting in reduced prices and rents. The highly leveraged tend to crumble under pressure and may need to sell their properties at lower valuations. Even at the other end of the spectrum, the surviving ones still need to put on their thinking caps and reimagine how their properties could serve the tenants (now, customers).

Apart from that, WFH office workers might scoot away from business districts in search of cheaper accommodation alternatives. Others will go back to their home countries. Even so, the depressed commercial property market attracts some buyers like sharks to blood. For them, now is the perfect window to scoop up the distressed properties at attractive valuations. Their bet is on the revival of commercial property market when the markets pick up PLUS the ceasing of WFH arrangements. Buying up properties is a vampiric activity Haha, but it’s reserved for other arguments. Not this one.

However, I paint a different picture for the logistics and warehousing businesses. Such businesses need to retain a physical space and rely on their essential workers to do the work. The demand remains strong for commercial properties that are related to such businesses. Their products and services remain essential to communities that depend on them for basic needs, even to the extent of providing employment. With a well-balanced ESG policy, the feedback loop between the warehouse and local community helps to maintain the valuation of its commercial properties and the surrounding residential properties.

I bring up ESG because of the constant chatter about using artificial intelligence to replace human workforce. A well-balanced ESG policy will foster a careful concoction of essential workers who would be supported by artificial intelligence, thereby nursing the local community with trust and employment. This creates a win-win situation for both parties. Both parties. The local community and the company.

Given these, I think that companies need to rethink their workplace strategies for the office workers. Many companies are already doing so but I think both public and private sector must tread carefully on this path together. In the future, office workers might find that living near to work/ country of work, is unnecessary. Both employers and employees should be aware of this by now. Essentially, the motivation for office talents to migrate to countries in search of work, will reduce if WFH policies persists. As for the essential workers, I think that the work arrangements will remain but it is important to balance their work with the future use of artificial intelligence. This is why the ESG agenda must include artificial intelligence.

Secondly, with the decrease in motivation to work/live in the country of work, office workers could be more drawn towards staying at home ground, be gainfully employed and still remain close to their friends and relatives. Are companies still require to provide their office workers with compensation that often comprises housing arrangements, sponsorship for troublesome visa applications, personal transport arrangements, etc?

I think not.

Companies would be less willing to sponsor visas because they can access global talents via the internet now. Compensation packages will change. Instead of relocating office workers from other countries, these large companies could try to reduce their workplace portfolios, implement hot desking for the local workforce and connect to the talents via internet. Locals would be matched with jobs that are needed to maintain the MNCs’ local offices. These jobs would mostly be in business development and administration work. Why would a company hire a foreign talent to do administration work when they could easily fill that position with a local. Why would a company hire a foreign talent to do business development in the region when they need a person with the local know-hows and a deep understanding of the region’s culture?

Now we have a lot less reasons to migrate for work.

Countries that traditionally depend on its creative and energetic migrants for technological breakthroughs, will increasingly find themselves slowing down in research and development. Eventually these countries will backpedal in their development, slowly eroding away all competitive advantages. Once their economy becomes anemic, the land would become barren as the population fade away through a drastic decline in population, internal conflict or descends into a refugee situation. Drastic decline in population isn’t as safe as it sounds to be. Combined with anemic migration, the shrinking eco-system starts to intermingling just among themselves which isn’t the best case scenario for intellectual growth and development.

They could still attract those who are providing essential services but that is for the time being. Once artificial intelligence takes over essential functions, the rate of migration will trickle to a dribble. Any countries that want to stay afloat, should be committed to investing in its food resiliency programmes, upskilling its citizens and ploughing ahead in the development of any bit of artificial intelligence.

So I am arguing that countries will find it challenging to attract global talents if WFH becomes the new norm.

Equally pressing but I won’t elaborate much here, is the rapid development in additive manufacturing and that creates less migration opportunities for work in the future too. This development would also drastically transform the global shipping routes. And… (ominous music), the development of a different type of internet which is already ongoing. Combine that with blockchain and you roughly know where I am pointing to…

I think that countries with a growing population and do not rely on migrant talents, hypnotically should have less long term issues with WFH arrangements. Ever heard of the genius who is “One in a million”? Its a phrase that is often used in Chinese martial arts film to identify the genius who possesses stratospheric capabilities, with the ability to arrest a bad situation and maybe even reverse the entire calamity into a flourishingly positive situation. That is your “One in a million” genius.

If this is really the case, then South Africa (just an example for discussion) with an estimated population of 58.56 million people in 2019, would have about 58 people with such exceptional talents (Eurostat data, 2019). It would be more difficult for these 58 people to migrate for work but they will be a huge boon to their country if they are given the right opportunity to nurture their talents.

WFH makes it more difficult for people to migrate for work in the future.

What are your thoughts on WFH?

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